In order to legalize the procedure so that the Mexicans living outside of México can vote, the President must send the Law Initiative to Congress for discussion, vote and, in its case, approval. It is estimated that this Law could be approved by the first half of May.
The right to vote outside of Mexico will represent an unknown event in Mexican politics and its repercussions will be far reaching. For the first time in Mexican history those Mexicans living outside of Mexico will be able to vote and choose the President of Mexico.
The Deciding Force (Fiel de la Balanza) that would tip the final results of the elections was always in the hands of the President of the Mexico. This phrase was coined to indicate who held the power to tip the results in the electoral process.
If the law is approved so that the Mexicans can vote outside of México, there will be a new Deciding Force, a new power in the hands of the Paisanos that could decide the elections. The next presidential election could be decided outside of Mexico.
Let’s examine the case:
In the prior elections, Vicente Fox beat Francisco Labastida by a margin of 2.4 million votes. According to Francisco Paoli Bolio, Undersecretary of State, there are 10 million Mexicans in the United States with the right to vote.
The remittances sent by the Mexican Paisanos reached a sum of 13.266 billion dollars. This is the second largest money producer after oil exports, it represents 1.125% of the GNP and is a stabilizing economic factor for Mexico.
According to the forecasts obtained by PaisanosMexicanos.com, the vote preferences would be split between the PRD, the PAN and as a third option the PRI. The PRD will be the party with the greatest attraction thanks to the fact that it has been more in contact with the Mexican Paisanos through the governors of Michoacan and Zacatecas, Lázaro Cárdenas and Ricardo Monreal.
The PAN is in second place because the Mexican Paisanos feel that the present government has not fulfilled its campaign promises that Vicente Fox made, it has not done anything great to help them and there is still the outstanding payment for the ex-bracero’s savings accounts. Nevertheless, the fact that the PAN might obtain the right to vote for the Mexican Paisanos, will raise their appeal considerably.
The PRI is in third place because the Mexican Paisanos believe that they had to leave México due to lack of finding jobs during the PRI reign. They are waiting for the opportunity for payback.
Faced with this scenario, the Mexican Paisanos, which would represent a new wave of votes, could become the New Deciding Force in the 2006 elections.
